2019-11-11 September update

September update

Transactions through end September were published by the Land Registry late October.

The new data points to a strong uptick in prices at both extremes of the spectrum, represented by postcodes WC and TS. This - if confirmed - means a very sharp reversal in factor 3 has occurred in June 2019, and almost exactly on cue. This factor has scored positive every month since July 2014, totalling +6.9 units of in 59 months, which is about right for a factor with annual standard deviation of 1. The previous upswing lasted 63 months from April 1998 to July 2003 and had magnitude +7.0 and had an equally sharp reversal. The match is therefore uncanny on 4 counts: duration of the upswing, magnitude of the upswing, sharpness of the reversal, and timing of the period (16 years). In brief, the implication of this is that super-prime London could have started its next long phase of outperformance relative to anything commutable, so deluxe studios in Knightsbridge are as hot as terraces in Bolton.

Despite the economic and political uncertainties the overall market recorded its strongest month since July 2016 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is represented by factor 1.

More detail can be found in the section on factors.

As ever, conclusions on the latest data are tentative and subject to revisions as data comes in. It is quite likely that with backfilled and new data the very sharp rotation will be revised closer to trend next month.