Rotation

Each £/m2 has its moment

  • Here we show just the ‘cases’ to reduce clutter, again as a scatterplot based on factor 2,3 sensitivities, colours representing price

  • The disk and the +,- symbols show the direction of the factors at the present moment in 2019 - recall that both factors 2 and 3 are ‘on the up’ (positive) so the factor vector is pointing to the upper right quadrant corresponding to +,+, and the disk is coloured accordingly

  • We are currently at about 0 degrees (where the + sign is), and in the lower image we run the clock forward by 50 degrees, and show how the cycle will then look

  • recall that if the cycle take 16 years so this could take up to 5 years but last time this phase of the cycle was traversed fast and took just 3 years to get to 290 degrees - more on the next page

  • At this point most areas get a negative cyclical contribution - they are in the blue region - but both the lowest (TS) and highest (WC) get a small positive contribution

  • At this point we are close to starting a new cycle, which we arbitrarily define to be 270 degrees, when only Prime London gets a positive contribution and Teesside falls into the shade

  • None of this is related to factor 1, which caused the crash and did not much disrupt the cycle - factor 1 is a separate story